Tracking Milton Florida braces for major hurricane impact

Tracking Milton: Florida braces for major hurricane impact

by A.J. Mastrangelo, Storm Team 10

ORIGINAL NOTE: https://turnto10.com/weather/weather-blog/tracking-milton-where-when-the-hurricane-is-expected-to-make-landfall

9:00 AM UPDATE: Milton has undergone rapid intensification this morning and is now a potent category 4 hurricane packing 150 MPH winds. The track and intensity forecast from the NHC has not changed, but some guidance suggests Milton may become a category 5 storm over the open waters of the Gulf.

Hurricane Milton special 9AM advisory (WJAR/NHC) p /p

Hurricane Milton special 9AM advisory (WJAR/NHC) p /p

A state of emergency has been declared for much of the Sunshine State and we are now seeing mandatory evacuations for coastal communities as well.

7:00 AM UPDATE: Hurricane Milton has officially became a category 3 major hurricane. Life threatening conditions are forecasted for parts of Florida through midweek.

Hurricane Milton special 7AM advisory (WJAR) p /p

Hurricane Milton special 7AM advisory (WJAR) p /p

On the heels of Helene, the West Coast of Florida is bracing for another round of significant impacts. Hurricane Milton became a category 2 storm early this morning, and is expected to become a major hurricane today.

Storm Team 10 meteorologist A.J. Mastrangelo has the latest this morning.

 

Hurricane watches have been posted for a large swath of western Florida where wind and storm surge impacts are expected to be the greatest.

Florida tropical alerts (WJAR) p /p

Florida tropical alerts (WJAR) p /p

The National Hurricane Center‘s latest forecast depicts Milton making landfall as a category 3 storm late Wednesday night near Sarasota. While the storm is expected to become a category 4 over the open Gulf, dry air may lead to some weakening prior to landfall. Forecasters urge residents to stay updated, as changes in forecasted track and intensity may change.

Forecast track for Hurricane Milton (WJAR) p /p

Forecast track for Hurricane Milton (WJAR) p /p

Despite not seeing the worst of the wind, parts of western Florida (including the immediate Tampa area) saw record breaking storm surge from Hurricane Helene. With still some uncertainty on the storms eventual landfall location, the National Hurricane Center has outlined an expansive 8-12 ft. storm surge forecast. While water level rise of this magnitude should only be expected on the right side of the storm, residents are asked to prepare for the worst given potential track shifts.

Thankfully we are not expecting to see the magnitude of rainfall as we did with Helene, but rainfall totals 5-10″+ are still expected to lead to instances of freshwater flooding. As is the case with all tropical systems, quick spin up tornadoes will be possible along the right side (dirty side) of the storm.

Milton rainfall potential (WJAR) p /p

Milton rainfall potential (WJAR) p /p
Stick with Storm Team 10 as we closely monitor Milton’s progress towards Florida.